Republicans Could Have a Temporary Zero-Seat Majority in the House

 

WASHINGTON–When the House of Representatives returns on Jan. 3, 2025, to begin the 119th Congress for a two-year term, Republicans will start out with a narrow majority.

Though the party won 220 seats in the House, giving them a three-seat margin over the majority mark of 218, this number is set to decline in January. The drop in seats could imperil the GOP’s ability to pass legislation and, possibly, flip control of the House to the Democratic Party.

Below are the expected vacancies in the House, as well as the process for filling them.

Florida’s 1st District

This district, covering most of the Florida panhandle, was represented by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) for seven years—until Nov. 13, 2024. On that day, Gaetz resigned from office following the announcement that President-elect Donald Trump had nominated him to serve as U.S. Attorney General in the incoming administration. While supported by some conservatives, the nomination was also met with some bipartisan criticism, given allegations of misconduct against Gaetz contained in a House Ethics Committee report. Opposition from GOP senators necessary for confirmation led Gaetz to withdraw from consideration a week later.

Despite his resignation from the 118th Congress, Gaetz was elected to the 119th Congress, and he could, theoretically, take his seat in the House. Though Gaetz has announced that he'd decline to serve in the new Congress, his recent social media post suggested he might change his mind.

On Dec. 23, the Ethics Committee released its report on an investigation that accused Gaetz of having sex with a minor, soliciting prostitutes, using drugs, and violating House rules.  Gaetz has denied any wrongdoing and has not been criminally charged.

On Nov. 13, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told The Epoch Times he had asked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to begin the process of a special election for Florida’s 1st District because the U.S. Constitution does not permit governors to make temporary appointments to the House to fill a vacancy, as it does for the Senate.

DeSantis issued an executive order on Nov. 22 to call a special primary election in the district on Jan. 28, 2025, followed by a special general election on Apr. 1, 2025. If there is no contest in the primary for a recognized party’s nomination, the special general election will beheld on the primary date—Jan. 28 in this case. Gaetz’s seat has a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) score of R+19, which makes it the most Republican district in Florida.

At a minimum, it means that Gaetz’s seat will be vacant for between 25 and 90 days from Jan. 3, 2025, the day the new Congress convenes for the first time. This will bring the House Republican Conference’s strength from 220 to 219, and the entire House’s strength down to 434. The majority mark will remain unchanged at 218, although it means Republicans will have a two-seat majority.

Florida’s 6th District

This district, covering portions of northeastern Florida along the Atlantic coast, is currently represented by Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), who was appointed by Trump to serve as his national security adviser on Jan. 20, 2025, the day he is inaugurated. Despite its elevation to cabinet rank, the position does not require Senate confirmation, which means Waltz will take office immediately upon being sworn in. Hence, Waltz has resigned from Congress, effective Jan. 20.

Because Congress convenes on Jan. 3, Waltz will join the 119th Congress, to which he was elected on Nov. 5, and will serve for only 17 days. Like with the 1st District, DeSantis has issued an executive order calling a special election, which will be held according to the same schedule as the 1st district.

The leading Republican candidate for the seat, which has a Cook PVI score of R+14, is state Sen. Randy Fine, who represents the area in the Florida Senate. Trump has endorsed Fine, as have U.S. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and the three leaders of the House Republican Conference—Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.). Fine is running against two other GOP candidates.

Hence, similar to the 1st District, Waltz’s seat will be vacant from eight to 70 days from Jan. 20, 2025. This will bring the House Republican Conference’s strength from 219 to 218 and the entire House’s strength down to 433. At this point, the majority mark will change to 217 members, and Republicans will have a one-seat majority.

Should Stefanik resign, New York Public Officers Law requires the governor to issue a proclamation of a special election no more than 10 days after the resignation takes effect. There will be no primary election; the district’s recognized party committees will select the nominees. A special general election must then be held within 70 to 80 days of the proclamation’s issuance.

Hence, it is difficult to predict when Stefanik’s seat will become vacant and how long such a vacancy may last. If she resigns before special elections are held for Florida’s two vacant House seats, the strength of the House Republican Conference will decline from 218 to 217, and the entire House’s strength down to 432. At this point, the majority mark will remain unchanged at 217 members, and Republicans will have a zero-seat majority.

Consequences

The temporary reduction of the majority to zero seats will be negative for the House Republican Conference. To pass legislation, they will require the unanimous support of every member of the conference. During the 118th Congress, obtaining such unanimity was a tall order, and some conservative members, largely from the House Freedom Caucus, voted with Democrats to bring down GOP initiatives.

A consequential vote occurred on Oct. 3, 2023, when eight Republicans voted with Democrats to remove then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from office. Thereafter, with a four-seat majority, some Republicans frequently threatened to bring a “motion to vacate the chair” against Johnson. The only such effort—introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)—failed after House Democrats voted to table it.

In sum, the opposition of just a few House GOP members could imperil the Trump administration’s legislative agenda, which a majority of House Republicans are seeking to enact. Already, Trump has called for primary challenges in the 2026 midterm elections against GOP members who have disagreed with him, such as Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas).

If any other Republican members beyond Stefanik resign, or die, during the 119th Congress, and the Democratic Party wins special elections, the GOP could lose control of the House.

The House Democratic Caucus currently has 215 members and needs to gain just three seats to reach a majority in the full 435-member body. Should that occur, the party could successfully pass a motion to vacate the chair, install Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as the speaker of the House, and pass a new House rules package as well as restructure standing committees to have Democratic majorities...Read More